ICM's Wisdom Index to Predict Poll Results

In the UK, Creston Group company ICM has introduced a new online methodology for predicting election results, the Wisdom Index, which it is running for the Sunday Telegraph.

Unlike traditional political opinion polling, ICM says its new survey moves away from a focus on individual human behavior (how will you vote?), to one where outcomes are the primary concern (what do you think the result will be?).

Sample was selected at random, in proportion to population distribution across the UK, from sister firm newvista's panel of 200,000+ adults.

ICM Director Martin Boon (pictured) said in an interview with The Daily Telegraph that the thinking behind the new methodology was first put forward by James Surowiecki in his 2004 book 'The Wisdom of Crowds'.

Boon told the paper: 'We were surprised to find that the collective judgment of the crowd outperformed our own 'classic' opinion poll methodology, which itself still produced the most accurate prediction of the election, according to the British Polling Council's evaluation.'

The Wisdom Index currently shows the Labour party with an eight-point lead over the Conservatives.

Web site: www.icmresearch.com .