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Presidential Race Close – and Quirky
President Bush has a two-point lead over Senator John Kerry among likely US voters (48% to 46%), according to the latest Harris Poll, conducted online. Harris calls this 'a virtual dead heat' and therefore not dissimilar to the previous (telephone) poll two weeks earlier which put Kerry one point ahead of Bush (48% to 47%).
Harris also notes some 'very peculiar things going on'. Firstly, the traditional gender gap - with men leaning more toward Republican candidates and women toward the Democratic candidates - is only a very modest feature of this election, at the moment.
Secondly , President Bush is doing better among those with the least education - people who never went to college - than among those with more education, whereas normally Democratic candidates win substantial majorities among those with least education. Bush leads Senator Kerry by nine points among those with no college education and by six points among those with some college education but no bachelor's degree. Kerry, on the other hand, leads by five percent among those with a college degree and by fully 21 percent among those with post-graduate education.
Q: 'If the next presidential election were held today between George W. Bush for the Republicans, John Kerry for the Democrats and Ralph Nader as an Independent, for whom would you most likely vote?'
[If 'not sure/refused' : 'Well, if you had to say would you lean toward George W. Bush, John Kerry, or Ralph Nader?']
| |
All
Likely
Voters |
Sex |
Education |
| Men |
Women |
High
School
or Less |
Some
College |
College
Grad |
Post
Grad |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| George W. Bush |
48 |
50 |
46 |
51 |
50 |
45 |
37 |
| John Kerry |
46 |
45 |
47 |
42 |
44 |
50 |
58 |
| Ralph Nader |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
| None of these |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| Not sure / refused |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
2 |
| Bush Lead |
+2 |
+5 |
-1 |
+9 |
+6 |
-5 |
-21 |
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Harris surveyed 2301 people aged 18+, including 1,777 likely voters, between September 20 and 26. Harris Interactive's web site is at www.harrisinteractive.com and the Harris Poll site at www.harrispollonline.com
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