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Bush Gaining Ground Among Youth
US kids and teenagers aged 8-18 currently prefer President Bush to Senator John Kerry by 48 to 38%, according to results from Harris Interactive - the gap has widened from 6% (46 vs 40%) in August.
The poll shows that both boys and girls prefer Bush to Kerry by similar margins, but that older teenagers (aged 16-18) prefer Kerry to Bush by 43 to 39%. Bush's job approval rating among kids and teens is currently 54% positive and 46% negative.
John Geraci, Vice President of Youth Research at Harris Interactive, says polls of pre-voting age kids and teens are important. Not only do they have a remarkable track record of successfully predicting outcomes of elections (look out political pollsters) but 'Parents and children are discussing this election openly and the candidates themselves couch many campaign issues, such as the war on terror, education, and the environment as being children's issues. Being perceived as the better president for children will be essential for success in November'.
Geraci says the recent swing towards Bush is significant. 'Specifically, we have found that girls in particular have changed their preference from Kerry to Bush in the past month. This could be a bounce from the Republican convention or it might reflect a tendency young people have towards the familiar as Election Day approaches'.
The poll also shows that kids and teenagers are more likely to say that Bush would do a better job than Kerry on making the world a safer place for children (40% vs 27%) and improving education (37% vs 29%). They give John Kerry the edge on helping poor children and their families (35% vs 30%), protecting the environment (28% vs 25%) and ensuring that they can afford college some day (30% vs 29%).
The results come amid unusual levels of activity by the media, the music industry and the candidates themselves to involve young people in political thought and issues.
The survey was conducted via Harris Interactive's YouthQuerySM online omnibus between September 15 and 20 among 1,206 US children (aged 8-18), of whom 324 are teens aged 16-18. Data were balanced by age and gender. The company's web site is at www.harrisinteractive.com
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