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US Polls Show... Difficulty of Polling
With two weeks to go before the US election, President Bush has either an eight-point or a two-point lead, depending on the definition of 'likely voters', according to the Harris Poll. However, the closeness of the race along with social and technological changes make the result very hard to call.
In 17 swing states - in which votes for President Bush and Vice President Al Gore were virtually tied in the 2000 elections - Senator Kerry is doing better and, using one definition of likely voters, the poll shows him ahead by 7%, 51% to 44%. There is a higher sampling error on this sub-sample, however.
Defining likely voters as 'those who are registered to vote and are 'absolutely certain' to do so' shows President Bush with a modest two-point lead (48% to 46%). However, better indications have sometimes been found in the past by excluding all those who were old enough to vote in previous elections but did not do so: if we do this with those not voting in 2000, President Bush has a commanding eight-point lead (51% to 43%). Then again, voter turnout looks likely to be higher this time. Harris Interactive(r) says it 'has not yet decided which definition to use in our final predictions'.
Most likely voters (86%) believe they have made up their minds and will not change them - Bush supporters are more likely than Kerry supporters to say this. However, Kerry supporters (45%) are a little more likely than Bush supporters (39%) to believe that the result of this election will make a great deal of difference to them or their families - which may increase their likely turnout.
One of the most interesting results comes from asking about voter motivation, negative vs positive. Forty percent of Kerry supporters say their vote is more a vote against Bush than for Kerry, while only 17% of Bush supporters say they are voting mainly against Kerry.
1,016 people aged 18 and over were interviewed by telephone within the United States between October 14 and 17. The two definitions of likely voters are based on samples of 820 and 755, and the two samples of likely voters in swing states are 319 and 293. The company's web site is at www.harrisinteractive.com
The difficulties facing election pollsters are much discussed at present. According to a recent article on the BBC web site, lifestyle changes and new technologies are if anything making it harder not easier to get accurate predictions. The article quotes Michael Traugott, a senior researcher at the University of Michigan's Center for Political Studies, reminding the public that surveys have a margin of error: 'A standard pre-election poll is of 700 to 1,000 people, which produces a margin of error of three to four points... That means the poll can only reliably detect a lead of six to eight points'. Traugott says that as neither candidate has consistently pulled that far ahead in the race, all that polls can show is that the race is close - not who is leading.
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