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Emerging Market PC Explosion
The number of personal computers in use worldwide will reach almost 1.3 billion by the end of the decade, up from 575 million today, according to research by technology analyst Forrester. The study measured PC adoption rates across 16 emerging markets including China, Russia, and India.
Mature markets in the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific will add a relatively modest 150 million new PCs by 2010, while emerging markets will see a spectacular rise from 75 million to 566 million new PCs in use. Current industry leaders like Dell and HP will compete mostly on price against local emerging market manufacturers like Lenovo Group in China and Aquarius in Russia, according to Senior Analyst Simon Yates.
Some of the main emerging markets will be:- China - 178 million new PC users.
- India - 80 million new PC users. Despite gaining prominence as a center for outsourcing, India today has one of the lowest adoption rates in the world, but PC adoption will grow at a 37% annual rate through the end of the decade.
- Indonesia - 40 million new PC users (40% growth per year, from 2.6 million in 2003 to 40 million)
- Mexico - 46% of Mexicans will own a PC - the deepest penetration of PCs as a percentage of population of all 16 emerging markets analyzed.
The study identifies three waves in which PC adoption will occur: wealthy urbanites moving up from entry-level PCs; middle-class literates buying for the first time; and the rural mass market, 'a long-term challenge for the PC industry' - likely to choose PC alternatives, such as smartphones. It also forecasts advantages for local over western PC builders, Linux over Windowsdue to no Windows legacy in these markets, and wireless providers over wired.
The study, 'Sizing The Emerging-Nation PC Market', looked at China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Russia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Mexico, Philippines, Vietnam, Egypt, Ethiopia, Turkey, Iran, and Thailand. Forrester is online at www.forrester.com
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