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Pollsters Still Scratching Heads over Clinton Win
Following Senator Hillary Clinton's surprise win in last week's New Hampshire election, pollsters are still trying to understand how the primary polling was so wide of the mark. US survey associations MRA and AAPOR are also getting involved in the debate.
However, Lee Miringoff, Director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, argues that the race was changing even as the polls were being announced. 'The last hours of the campaign were a media feeding frenzy over Clinton's show of emotion when responding to a voter's question on Monday morning,' Miringoff said. 'Video of her 'emotional' moment was everywhere and was played over and over with unrelenting commentary. Hillary Clinton was again the victim.'
University of New Hampshire pollster Andy Smith agrees, saying that Clinton's profile changed with a question asked in a debate about her being a likeable candidate, adding: 'From that moment, I think she was very much humanised.'
The Market Research Association (MRA) says that with the exception of Clinton's results, the New Hampshire pre-primary polls were surprisingly accurate. MRA adds that while political surveys take a snapshot of the electorate at a specific point in time they are not an election. 'Campaigns are fluid entities; activities/occurrences can change the way people view candidates after surveys are conducted.'
Smith said he plans to go back into his numbers to see if any other lessons can be learned from this experience. But he admitted that in presidential primaries there is often a last-second surge which the polls can't capture.
The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has announced the formation of a committee to review the evaluations conducted by the individual organisations engaged in polling prior to the New Hampshire primary.
Web sites: www.maristpoll.marist.edu , www.unh.edu , www.mra-net.org and www.aapor.org.
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