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MPG's New Modelling Tool Predicts Obama Victory
Havas-owned MPG has developed a new social network modelling tool, Havas Media Resonance, which uses an agent-based algorithm to represent populations of consumers and predict their behavior.
The tool has already been used to predict the outcome of the US elections, forecasting 57% of the popular vote for Obama versus 43% for McCain. MPG says that unlike other polls, this prediction is unique because it definitively projects that Obama will win in November as opposed to identifying which candidate is ahead at the present time.
Resonance can be used to analyze performance in terms of key brand indicators - brand awareness, consideration, image and sales. The system factors in consumers' product experience and multimedia plans, as well as consumer social networks and their dynamics, both in terms of word-of-mouth and online interactions.
For the election prediction, the system was used to conduct a survey of 1,212 'likely voters', in the days immediately following the conventions in states designated by partner firm CNN.com as 'Battleground', 'Leaning McCain', or 'Leaning Obama'. Respondents were questioned about the two candidates on issues such as trust, leadership and consistency, and the results used to build a model of the social network as a context in which the simulations could be run.
The model also incorporates media touchpoints, including voter involvement with a broad range of communications including mass, online and consumer generated media and detailed media plans; and takes account of major campaign events (ie, the conventions and debates) plus estimates of each campaign's investment in various marketing communication outlets.
Web site: www.mpgna.com .
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