Contrary to the recent adverse publicity surrounding dot-coms, the first wave of NOP’s recently established DotCom Panel paints a picture of dot-com entrepreneurs as relatively optimistic as to their prospects longer term. Only one of the 102 members of the NOP Research Group’s DotCom Panel is pessimistic as regards their chances of being in business in a year’s time. Recent research suggests that around 50% of US-based dot-com ventures are in profit and given that the US market currently is viewed as analogous to the UK market in 12 months’ time, their expectations of future profit may be wholly realistic. Despite fierce criticism of the naivety of dot-com marketing strategies, the survey indicates that dot-coms are learning fast. Marketing strategies will increasingly rely on targeted campaigns with direct response measurement - direct mail and trade press - and e-marketing initiatives, generally banners and hyperlinks. However, UK dot-coms are budgeting for levels of marketing spend which, in relation to expected turnover, may be unsustainable in the medium-long term (marketing spend in the last 12 months having been in the region of 40%+ of turnover). The challenge facing many dot-coms remains converting registered users to customers rather than solely boosting user base. Analysis from NOP’s Internet User Profile Survey indicates that, in light of the threat posed by the "clicks and mortars", expectations of new customer growth should be tempered. According to NOP Internet Analyst Gordon Smith, "Aware of the challenges they face, dot-coms’ optimism is grounded in real belief in their brand, customer base and, in some cases, their belief in the technological superiority of their channel propositions. One hopes that the lessons of Boo.com have been absorbed - that technological superiority must translate into simplicity at the customer interface and that cost control must be paramount. Indeed, recent figures from Lastminute.com suggest that a focus on cost-cutting and sustaining cash-flow may already be starting to pay dividends." NOP interviewed 102 decision-makers/founders of UK based dot-coms between July and October 2000.