Mexican Poll Proposals Off Target - WAPOR

WAPOR, the World Association for Public Opinion Research, has issued a statement in response to proposals by two of Mexico's political parties, regarding the regulation of pre-election polling.

The measures have been tabled in the Mexican Congress, one in each chamber. In the Lower House, the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) proposes completely prohibiting the publication of any poll results during national election campaigns, claiming they are used as propaganda for parties and candidates and 'misinform citizens'; while in the Senate, the National Action Party (PAN), proposes 'complex regulations aimed to increase the quality and transparency of polls'.

The latter, modelled on existing laws in France and Canada, include a reduction of the current publication ban from three days to one day prior to the election; the formation of a Technical Committee on polls at the Federal Elections Institute to review results and methodologies; the introduction of certification for polling organizations; and revised laws on minimal disclosure, including a requirement for pollsters to identify sponsors.

On the PRD proposal, WAPOR says it 'firmly believes that the regular publication and discussion of reputable polls during election campaigns is a vibrant aspect of democracy' -and a ban would contravene citizens' right to information and the right of researchers to conduct and publish public opinion polls.

While applauding the PAN's ideas on quality and transparency of polls, WAPOR says previous experience with such laws shows that 'more complex regulations rarely translate into better results or better practices'. The current Mexican law on the subject already matches the organisation's Code of Ethics (http://wapor.unl.edu/wapor-code-of-ethics ) - and indeed goes further by requiring data sets to be available for public scrutiny, a policy it says can lead to 'perverse effects' if used by 'non-informed parties' to criticize polls on inappropriate grounds.

Lastly, WAPOR acknowledges that the proposals follow unfortunate recent experience in the country's presidential election, where most public polls overestimated the winning
candidate's lead beyond the margin of error - but says more scientific methodologies, adherence to ethical principles and proper citation and use of poll results by the media would address the problems more effectively than regulation.