Scientists Analyse Brain State to Predict Behaviour

The state of your brain can be used to predict your future decisions before you even see the options, according to a theory developed by three leading UK academics.

Drawing on methodologies and theories based on neuroimaging and chaos theory, Nick Lee of Warwick Business School, Sven Braeutigam of the University of Oxford and Carl Senior, of Aston University, have found that knowledge about the state of the brain can provide important insight into how and under which circumstances people might engage in risky decision-making.

According to the trio, the brain consumes 20 per cent of the body's energy even when we are doing nothing, and when it is given a difficult cognitive task to do, the increase in energy used is minute. The researchers argue this resting activity is critical to how we interact with the environment. Building on previous work by Dr Braeutigam, the new research suggests that when presented with a choice about which common consumer goods to purchase, people whose brains are in a 'deterministic' state (corresponding to being more prepared) tend to make their choice quicker and pick the less familiar brand. When the brain is not in a deterministic state, people tend to choose the familiar brand and take slightly longer to do it.

Professor Lee explains: 'Our idea is that this intrinsic brain activity is part of the brain's predictive process about what is going to happen next, and prepares you to make a decision. Of course, in any binary choice, random chance will predict your choice correctly 50 per cent of the time, but it is likely that we can significantly outperform that, in the right conditions, by knowing your brain state before you make that choice. We believe that by incorporating an understanding of this intrinsic brain activity into research in a host of decision-making situations we can develop a more accurate view of how our brain works to support our behaviour'.

The paper: 'A role for endogenous brain states in organizational research: Moving toward a dynamic view of cognitive processes' can be obtained by emailing ashley.potter@wbs.ac.uk .