IPA Bellwether Downbeat on UK MR Budgets

Total UK marketing budgets stalled in the last quarter of 2025, after two consecutive quarters of upward revisions, according to the IPA's Bellwether report. Responses suggested that market research budgets fell for the fourth consecutive quarter, and will do so again in the coming year.

The IPA represents advertising, media and marcoms agencies based in the UK, and has around 270 agency brand members. The Bellwether first ran in 2000 and is currently based on a questionnaire survey of around 300 UK-based companies from the top 1,000, sampled to reflect 'actual marketing trends in the whole economy'. Respondents are primarily marketing directors or similar and questionnaires are sent out in the final three weeks of each calendar quarter.

The survey calculates net scores by subtracting the percentage of respondents predicting a decline in spend from that predicting a rise, in each area / sector. The net score for total marketing spend in Q4 fell from 3.6% to 0.0%, with the majority of respondents (57.4%) reporting spend unchanged. In addition to 'muted economic activity' and budget constraints, respondents cited the government's Autumn Budget as a headwind in the final quarter, as were 'escalating geopolitical tensions, global and domestic policy uncertainty, US tariffs and fears of an AI-fuelled stock market bubble.'

Looking at the breakdown by category of spend, PR and events budgets rose (net scores +3.5% and +1.4% respectively); main media and sales promotions budgets both recorded no change, with out-of-home and audio budgets falling sharply. The net score for MR budgets fell by 4.0%, having fallen by 6.8% in Q3.

Looking ahead to 2026-7, a net 1.7% of respondents predicted an increase in total marketing spend, one of the weakest preliminary outlooks in the Bellwether's 26 years. The positive overall balance was only due to an anticipated rise in spend on events, with all six of the other categories falling. In the case of MR, a dire net score of -17.4% propped up the table.

Respondents were more pessimistic than previously about prospects for their own company and for industry as a whole. The net balance of -19.0% for the former was the worst in thirteen quarters; while for the latter, 41.1% of firms were pessimistic and only 11.0% optimistic, for a net balance of -30.1%.

IPA Director General Paul Bainsfair said of the results: 'This quarter's flatlining of marketing spend reflects a wider confidence problem. Global instability continues to unsettle markets, while domestically there appears to be limited faith in the Government's grip on the economy. Until that changes, caution is understandable. What we can say with confidence, however, is that those organisations which continue to invest in advertising, especially in a quieter market, stand to gain greater visibility and, over time, increased market share. This is most effective when investment is sustained and focused on long-term brand-building channels.'

Report author Maryam Baluch, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said marketing budgets had 'held firm' throughout the quarter, 'as businesses exercised caution around major events such as the Autumn Budget.' She adds: 'As we move into 2026, the economic climate remains challenging, with marketeers under pressure to deliver ROI as firms scrutinise spending decisions more harshly given the competitive market landscape and subdued macroeconomic outlook.' However she believes that 'An anticipated easing of inflationary pressures and reduced borrowing costs in 2026 could spring business investment back to life this year.'

The association is on the web at www.ipa.co.uk .