UK Marketing Spend Up, MR Spend Down. Really?

UK marketing budgets were revised upwards in the first quarter of the year, according to the IPA Bellwether Report - but once again 'market research' bucked the trend with respondents reporting a decrease. DRNO is increasingly skeptical about the significance of the MR figure.

The IPA represents advertising, media and marcoms agencies based in the UK, and has around 270 agency brand members. The Bellwether first ran in 2000 and is currently based on a questionnaire survey of around 300 UK-based companies from the top 1,000, sampled to reflect 'actual marketing trends in the whole economy'. Respondents are primarily marketing directors or similar and questionnaires are sent out in the final three weeks of each calendar quarter. The latest survey was in field between 2nd and 24th March 2026.

The survey calculates net scores by subtracting the percentage of respondents predicting a decline in spend from that predicting a rise, in each area / sector. The net score for marketing budgets overall this time was +7.3% of respondents: 26.8% of panellists reporting an increase in marketing spend against 19.5% reporting a reduction. This is up noticeably from a flatline net balance of 0.0% in Q4 2025, although Qs 2 and 3 last year saw increases.

Events outperformed all other segments by a significant margin, with a net balance of +14.7%; while public relations spend had a net balance of +6.0%, its highest figure since 2024.

The report headlines suggest that only MR and the 'other' spend category saw net decreases in the period, but that's a little inaccurate: breaking down the large 'main media advertising' category, with its overall +4.5% net rating, shows increases in 'other online advertising' and video, but budgets for audio, published brands, and out-of-home marketing continuing to decline, with net balances of -3.4%, -8.5%, and -11.3%, respectively. The net balance for market research fell from -4.0% to a four-quarter low of -8.5%.

There is still great uncertainty about economic prospects, with 28.6% of respondents reporting greater optimism about their company's financial outlook compared to three months ago, and an almost identical 28.0% expressing pessimism - nevertheless the net balance of +0.6% is nevertheless a big improvement on Q4's -19.0%. Around 35.3% of marketing executives reported a pessimistic view of broader industry prospects, more than double the 14.4% who felt more optimistic.

Paul Bainsfair, Director General of the IPA, said the latest figures 'defy wider geopolitical uncertainty and signal a bullish start to the year for UK marketing investment. Looking at the detail, it is pleasing to see that budgets for main media are up. The evidence is being heeded, even in tougher conditions, cutting back on advertising risks long-term damage.' Maryam Baluch, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence and author of the Bellwether Report, states: 'marketing executives have demonstrated resilience, concentrating efforts on revenue-generating sectors and prioritising targeted, client-driven campaigns - including more events - to better position their organisations amid ongoing headwinds and uncertainty.'

DRNO has reported on the Bellwether more than 60 times since 2002, and sure it's interesting, but we do take the MR doom and gloom with an increasing pinch of salt, to be honest. We've seen a record start to the year in our own business, driven by companies in expansive mode looking to promote what they do, and hear regular feedback from a large number of sources indicating that firms in the sector are feeling a lot more upbeat in 2026. Perhaps the IPA needs to consider changes in scope - an awful lot of analytics and business intelligence solutions that now fall into our own definition of MR are probably not considered under the heading by Bellwether respondents, which would explain why the 300 firms in the survey paint a picture at variance with strong sector growth pronouncements from the MRS and others. I mean, no-one likes a good self-deprecating chuckle more than we do, but the figures suddenly don't feel right. Be great to hear the IPA's views on this - Ed.

Web site: www.ipa.co.uk .