Whilst this latest mobile phone data shows heady global markets, new sales growth rates do vary tremendously from region to region. These differences apply especially to countries where there is still untapped market potential, such as non-first world countries. The number of new users is set to rise particularly dramatically in these regions during 2001. GfK’s findings indicate that nearly half of all new mobile phone sales are likely to be in central and eastern European countries this year, compared with only 16% of the total in western Europe.

Despite this, western European countries will still account for the majority of all (ie both new and repeat) mobile phone sales. A probable four out of five units overall are likely to be sold in this region in 2001. In France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK (which together account for 54% of total European 2000 sales), the estimated sales growth for 2001 has been set at a conservative rate of only 12 -15 %.

To put all mobile sales in context, GfK has estimated that more than half the adult populations of western European countries already own one or more mobile phones. In some countries, the saturation rate is actually nearing 70% ownership, as is the case in Austria, Sweden and Italy. This means that further mobile phone market development must arise largely from multiple and upgrade purchasing.

GfK’s research concludes that, despite the high density of existing mobile phone ownership, growth in many developed countries is likely to continue. Intense marketing and promotional campaigns in these markets should effectively encourage consumers to make second and/or replacement purchases. To this end, campaigns already in place include attractive pre-paid packages and free upgrades. The pressure to keep up with the latest technology is also acting to positively drive sales, and this factor is set to continue into the foreseeable future.