AMSRO Sets Out Polling Inquiry Terms

Australian MR body AMSRO has published the draft terms of reference for its review of polling methods, following the surprise outcome of May's Federal Election; and has appointed an Advisory Board to undertake the review.

Last month, some Australian politicians and commentators called for opinion polls to be scrapped, following Prime Minister Scott Morrison's conservative Coalition win. Of the sixteen polls held since the election was called, all were in favour of the Labor party when respondents were asked to pick from the main two parties. The final result was Coalition 41% and Labor 34%.

AMSRO (The Association of Market and Social Research Organisations) has now launched its 'Inquiry into the Performance of Opinion Polls at the 2019 Australian Federal Election'. Full draft terms of reference will be available on the AMSRO web site but include: assessing the accuracy of the polls (both national and sub-national), and evaluating whether there is any previous pattern of inaccuracies. The inquiry will also seek evidence and insights from polling companies and other relevant stakeholders, including those who commission and publish polls. A preliminary report will be submitted to AMSRO as soon as practicable, and a final version as soon as possible thereafter.

The independent Advisory Board will operate at arm's length, reviewing and commenting on the draft terms of reference and the inquiry panel's report, while providing guidance and additional suggestions for lines of inquiry. Members of this Board include former Head of the Australian Bureau of Statistics Dennis Trewin; ANU Professor of Political Science Ian McAllister; former Kantar Insights Global CEO Travyn Rhall; and Kerry O'Brien, who has been the anchor of the ABC's federal and state election night coverage for more than twenty years. Other members include: Emeritus Professor of Politics at Macquarie University Professor Murray Goot; Dr Phil Hughes, Asia-Pacific Head of Statistical Consulting at Engine; polling expert John Stirton; Dr Paul Lavrakas, a renowned expert in survey methodology/error; Dr Jill Sheppard, lecturer in the School of Politics and International Relations, ANU; Dr Dina Neiger, Chief Statistician at the Social Research Centre; Patrick Moynihan, Associate Director of International Research Methods at Pew Research Center; Professor Patrick Sturgis, who headed a polling inquiry after the 2015 UK General Election; and Associate Professor Kristen Olson, who worked on the 2016 US Polling Inquiry.

The panel will be led by Darren Pennay (pictured), the founder of the Social Research Centre, who comments: 'The focus of the review will be to objectively assess the quality of the polling data by looking at the techniques and processes employed across the different polling organisations. We also need to examine the role of the pollsters and the media in communicating polling findings to the public'.

'It's important to note that the inquiry will not be focused on assessing the relative performance of individual polling companies, but rather on practices and processes in use across the industry. We will aim to mask or de-identify the polling companies' data, and panel members will sign nondisclosure agreements. The inquiry aims to deliver an evidence-based approach to find ways to improve the conditions for polling and the processes and methods used, so all companies can operate with a full appreciation of contemporary best practice'.

Web site: www.amsro.com.au .