USA - BIGresearch Consumer Confidence Index

Latest results (updated June 2008) With regard to job security, more than three in five (61.6% - a new high) contend that there will be more job losses in the next six months, up from 58.1% in May. About a third (31.4%) expects layoff levels to remain the same (down from 34.3% last month), while the minority (7.0%) hopes for fewer (versus 7.6% in May).

With regard to job security, more than three in five (61.6% - a new high) contend that there will be more job losses in the next six months, up from 58.1% in May. About a third (31.4%) expects layoff levels to remain the same (down from 34.3% last month), while the minority (7.0%) hopes for fewer (versus 7.6% in May).

Decreasing overall spending is the top financial priority for a third of consumers (33.9%, rising from 29.7% one year ago), paying down debt follows with 31.6% planning to do so in the next three months (down from 35.2% in June 2007). Fewer (23.3%) consumers are also planning to increase savings (versus 26.9% last year), while paying with cash more often remains flat (20.4%).

Among the now 86.0% of drivers who have been impacted by rising pump prices (a new high), the majority (54.7%) indicates that they will be driving less, and 44.1% are scaling back their travel plans.

Methodology BIGresearch's syndicated Consumer Intentions and Actions (CIA) survey monitors more than 8,000 consumers each month. The main confidence index represents the percentage of consumers who are confident or very confident about the chances of a strong economy.

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USA - Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (TNS NFO)

Latest results (updated June 2008) The Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in May, declined even further in June, and now stands at 50.4 (1985=100), down from 58.1 in May. This is the fifth lowest reading ever.

The Present Situation Index decreased to 64.5 from 74.2. Those claiming business conditions are bad increased to 32.5% from 29.7%, while those claiming business conditions are good declined to 11.5% from 13.0% last month.

Consumers' appraisal of the job market was also more pessimistic. Those saying jobs are hard to get increased to 30.5% from 28.3% in May. Those claiming jobs are plentiful declined to 14.1% from 16.1%.

The outlook for the labor market was also more pessimistic. The percent of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead increased to 35.5% from 32.3%, while those anticipating more jobs declined to 8.0% from 9.0%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 12.3% from 14.1%.

The Expectations Index declined to 41.0 from 47.3 in May – a new all-time low.

Methodology The monthly survey is based on a representative sample of 5,000 US households conducted by TNS. 100 represents the level of consumer confidence in 1985.

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USA - The Reuters / University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment

Latest results (updated June 2008) Consumer confidence fell to near its fifty year low due to soaring prices and mounting job losses.

Steep declines in the Expectations Index, which has been recorded since the start of 2007, has always been associated with subsequent recessions. The extent of the decline in consumer spending is likely to be relatively small. In the eleven recessions since 1945, consumption has declined in just two years, by -0.8% in 1974 and by -0.3% in 1980.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment was 56.4 in the June 2008 survey, just below the 59.8 in May, and significantly below the 85.3 recorded last June and the peak of 96.9 recorded in January of 2007. There have only been two prior surveys since 1952 than recorded a lower level—in April 1980 (52.7) and May 1980 (51.7).

The Index of Consumer Expectations was 49.2 in the June 2008 survey, down from 51.1 in May, and well below the 74.7 recorded in June 2007 and the peak of 87.6 in January 2007.

More consumers than any time since the first survey was conducted in 1946 reported that their financial situation had worsened (57%). When asked to explain the changes in their finances, the highest number of consumers cited higher prices for fuel and food, and the smallest number of consumers reported income gains than at any other time in the history of the surveys.

Inflation expectations rose in June to their highest levels in more than two decades. Although much lower,
long term inflation expectations also reached a decade peak in the June survey. Gas prices were expected to rise to $4.50 in the months ahead and average $5.00 over the next five years.


Methodology The index is based on a monthly, nationally representative survey of 5,000 US households. Each month, a cross-section of households is chosen to be re-interviewed six months later. This makes for a rotating panel, with around 40% of respondents in each sample being interviewed for the second time.

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USA - Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) Consumer Attitudes and Household Spending (CASH) Index (Ipsos)

Latest results (updated July 2008) The survey found that, while consumer attitudes regarding the employment market show signs of stabilizing, Americans' confidence in future personal financial conditions, current conditions and investments continue to weaken. As a result, the overall RBC CASH Index for July 2008 dropped to 14.6, a new all-time low since its inception in 2002, compared to 22.5 in June.

The Expectations Index dropped nearly 11 points to -54.7, down from the -43.9 reading in June. Fewer than one in five Americans (18%) think their local economy will strengthen in the next six months, compared to 22% last month. Only one in four Americans (25%) expect their personal financial situation to improve over the next six months, down from 31% in June.

The Current Conditions Index dropped to 30.5 this month, compared to 40.5 in June. Currently, 37% of respondents rate their personal finances as weak, up from 30% last month. Consumers' evaluations of the current state of their local economy also continued to deteriorate, as nearly half of Americans (48%) rated it as weak, up from 44% in June.

Americans' confidence in job security remained stable this month, and the Jobs Index for July stands at 89.1, compared to 87.3 last month. Confidence about personal job security held steady, with 58% of Americans saying they are less confident about their personal job security now than they were six months ago, compared to 57% in June.

Methodology The index is based on a monthly national survey by Ipsos Public Affairs of a representative sample of 1,000 adults from across the USA. The index is benchmarked to the 100 reading assigned in January 2002 when measurement began.

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CANADA - Harris/Decima-Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence

Latest results (updated May 2008) The overall index dropped to its lowest point since September 2001, in line with deterioration seen south of the border.

The steepest increase in pessimism was for the one year economic outlook and, alongside it, consumers’ inclination to make a major purchase.

While pessimism about the five year outlook also grew, the ascent has been more gradual. Today, the gap between pessimism about next year and five years out is 10 percentage points, more typically that gap is at least 20 points wide.

The number of people who say now is a bad time to make a major purchase has almost doubled since the fall. Despite the increasing concern about the macro economy, the number of people who say they will personally be worse off next year than this year remains fairly low, at 20%.

More than a quarter (27%) say they will be better off next year than today, 12% say worse, and 22% say they are better off today than last year, compared with the 19% who say they are less prosperous.

Methodology The Index is based upon five questions that probe perceptions of current and future economic conditions, and employs a similar model to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. Data is gathered each quarter from a survey of 2012 Canadians.

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CANADA - TNS Canadian Facts Consumer Confidence Index

Latest results (updated June 2008) After consumer confidence plunged in May to a four year low, the June findings from the Consumer Confidence Index suggest that Canadians’ assessment of the economy is holding steady.

The Present Situation Index stands at 110.1 (up slightly from 109 in May). While 13% of Canadians say that the economy is very or fairly bad, just under half of Canadians (47%) think the economy is very or fairly good. In November of 2007, two-thirds of Canadians were upbeat about the economy. Although the decline in consumer sentiment since November is significant, Canadians with positive assessments of the current economy still outnumber those who hold negative views.

The Expectations Index was also almost unchanged at 92.4 (down from 92.9 in May).

The Buy Index now sits at 86.8 (down from 88.3 last month).