EUROPE WIDE - ACNielsen Consumer Confidence Index

Latest results (June 2008) The latest Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index has plunged to 88 - down six points in the last six months – the largest single drop the Index has recorded in the last three years.

In Europe, the Index dropped six points to 83, with Norway the most optimistic nation in the region with a score of 129. Confidence in Norway did take a six-point dive in the six months to April, but this pessimism may not last long, as a recent estimate released by the Norwegian government reveals that for every NOK 10 increase in the price for oil, Norway will earn an extra NOK 6.1 billion. This means Norway stands to gain an extra NOK 100bn (approximately US$19.3bn) from oil exports alone.

Other European countries posting an increase in consumer confidence were the Netherlands (+5%), Poland, Czech Republic (+3%), and Belgium (+1%). Consumer confidence remained unchanged in Germany.

In Western Europe, consumer confidence took the biggest tumble in Spain (down 16 points) and the UK (down 15 points). In the last twelve months, Spain has suffered the biggest fall in consumer confidence globally, with a drop of 24 points. Consumer confidence in Italy, which suffered the biggest drop in consumer confidence in the previous survey, fell a further four points from 80 to 76 points. Nine in 10 Italians believe their nation is currently in recession.

A staggering 93% of Portuguese believe their job prospects are either not so good or downright bad. In contrast, 94% of Norwegians are optimistic about their job prospects over the next year.

One in five (26%) Portuguese, Belgians, Germans and French said they have no spare cash along with 22% of UK consumers.

The Nordic nations of Denmark (50%), Norway (46%) and Finland (45%) - countries that have always topped the Consumer Confidence Index for their optimism - are most expectant that the world will be plunged into a global recession in the coming year.

Methodology The six-monthly survey is conducted online with 26,312 consumers across Europe, Asia Pacific, North America and the Middle East. The latest six-monthly survey was conducted from October to November 2007 with users in 48 markets.

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EUROPE WIDE - European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys Latest results (June 2008) Record 3.7% eurozone inflation shredded consumer confidence during the month and is expected to rise higher. European confidence dropped to 94.9, the lowest since May 2005, from 97.6 the previous month. Consumer confidence declined to a level of -17 in June from -15 in May. The jobs outlook may also be deteriorating after unemployment fell to a record low 7.1% this year. Methodology The indicator is based on a monthly survey conducted across the countries of the European Union (EU) and those in the Euro currency area (EA), with a total sample size of more than 32,000. It is based on answers to questions about expectations of the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, the unemployment situation and savings. >> More details

FRANCE - Insee Monthly Consumer Confidence Survey Latest results (June 2008) The Index fell for the 12th time in a row to minus 46 in June from minus 42 in May. There was a decline in confidence on the outlook for living standards (which declined by seven points to minus 57), assessment of recent trends in living standards and on current and future personal finances. Confidence for making big purchases also fell, as did the concept of saving, on prices and expectations of inflation. A gauge of consumer sentiment dropped to minus 46, the lowest since the Index was introduced in 1987, from minus 42 in May. A gauge of people's outlook for their personal financial situation declined to minus 23 from minus 19. Finally, households’ opinions in June about future unemployment hardly moved. Methodology The Insee monthly index covers all goods and services consumed on French territory by resident households and non-resident households (for example, tourists). >> More details

GERMANY - GfK Consumer Climate MAXX survey

Latest results (June 2008) Both economic and income expectations dropped for the second time in a row, and as a result, the consumer climate indicator for July is forecasting a value of 3.9 points after a revised 4.7 points in June.

Repeated announcements of new record petrol and diesel prices have compounded consumer fears of a loss of purchasing power, and making them more pessimistic in their assessments of their income prospects for June.

After a loss of almost 10 points in May this year, the indicator of economic expectations once again declined by just under 6 points to stand at 7.5 points.

Continuing high rates of inflation are making their mark on income expectations. In June, the indicator fell by 3 points to its current value of 7.2 points. The last time the indicator was below this level was December 2006.

Falling income expectations are leading to a corresponding drop in consumer propensity to buy. After losing 16 points in May, the indicator is again down by at least another three points to its current level of -23.7 points, its lowest value since June 2005.

High energy prices and the threat of further drastic price rises, for example, for gas, are consolidating expectations of inflation, which, in turn, is dampening the enthusiasm of German consumers to make purchases.

Methodology The survey, conducted each month on behalf of the European Commission, involves 2,000 consumer interviews. There are separate indexes for income expectations, economic outlook, consumption and buying propensity, as well as an overall consumer climate measure.

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ITALY - ISAE Monthly Consumer Survey Latest results (June 2008) The overall confidence index came in at 100, compared to 103.2 in the previous month, returning to its April level. The indicator relating to short-term expectations posted the sharpest decline, moving from 101.7 to 97.8. The gauge summarizing the opinions on the present situation lowered from 105.5 to 103.1. Confidence in the country's economic conditions diminished from 84.7 to 82.3, while the respondents' personal situation Index moved from 113.1 to 109.9. The balance for the opinions on the year-on year change in consumer prices surged to an historical peak. However, respondents continued to expect slightly lower inflation in the following twelve months. Prospects for labour market developments recorded an improvement. In particular, the balance for assessments on the current, general economic situation declined from -130 to -133 (the lowest reading since February 1994). Also the one for expectations came in sharply lower, moving from -23 to -33. In contrast, expectations for a rise in unemployment bettered for the second month running: the balance reached 33 (compared to 36 in May). Consumers also showed more concern about buying consumer durables and about saving in the following months: the balance for buying opportunities declined from -102 to -127, while the Index for saving lowered from -71 to -79. Methodology Each month, ISAE surveys 2,000 Italian consumers about their assessments and forecasts on the Italian economic situation, households' economic situations, employment and spending intentions. >> More details

UK - GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer

Latest results (June 2008) Confidence dropped a further 5 points in June to -34; almost on a par with the lowest level ever recorded, and only 1 point higher than the -35 recorded in March 1990 when the UK was heading into recession.

Confidence in the economy over the next 12 months is at a new low, forty-two points down on this time last year.

The major purchases measure is also at its lowest ever level, having fallen by three points, from -32 to -35; this is forty-one points lower than this time last year. This score is the lowest on record for this measure (GfK NOP has been tracking this measure since 1982).

The Index measuring changes in personal finances during the last year has dropped by six points to a score of -17; this is twenty points lower than this time last year. This level has not been seen since April '95.

The forecast for personal finances over the next year has dropped five points to a score of -9. This is twenty-two points lower than this time last year. This level has not been seen since September ’95.

The 'now is a good time to save' Index, has dropped by 3 points to +22, this is fourteen points lower than this time last year.

Methodology Around 2,000 adults are interviewed monthly.

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UK - TNS/Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index (NCCI)

Latest results (June 2008) The Nationwide Consumer Confidence Index fell four points to 61 in June – its lowest level since the survey began.

The Present Situation Index and the Spending Index remained static in June at 56 and 60 respectively. However, both indices stayed at their lowest level to date.

Consumers have become far less upbeat about the future of the economy. More than half (53%) believe the economic situation will be worse in six months’ time – the highest number this year and 24% more than this time last year.

Consumer sentiment about household income saw the first real signs of a shift in June. The number of consumers who think their household income will be higher in six months’ time fell to 16%. This is 5% lower than in May (21%) and more than 10% lower than this time last year (28%). The majority of consumers believe their household income in six months’ time will remain the same as it is now (69%).

The number of consumers who think now is a good time to make a major purchase increased to 18% in June, the highest level since July 2007.

The number of consumers who think now is a good time to make a major purchase increased to 18% in June, the highest level since July 2007.

Methodology The survey is modelled on the US Conference Board consumer confidence survey. Based on 1,000 nationally representative interviews each month, it measures views of the general economic situation and employment conditions, as well as personal expectations for now and six months' time. The baseline figure of 100 represents the level of consumer confidence in May 2004.

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