Roy Morgan Research provides monthly consumer confidence indexes for Australia, and twice-monthly ratings for New Zealand.


ASIA PACIFIC - ACNielsen Global Online Consumer Confidence Survey

Latest results (June 2008) Consumer confidence worldwide has fallen to its lowest level in several years, to 88 - down six points in the last six months – the largest single drop the Index has recorded in the last three years. The Index fell three points in Asia Pacific.

Only Taiwan bucked the global trend of economic gloom, posting a buoyant 14 point increase in the past six months – up to 83 from 69 points.

India topped global rankings as the most optimistic nations, while in the last 12 months, consumer confidence in Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, plunged 19 points In April.

New Zealand also dropped a staggering 18 points in the last six months – its lowest level in a decade mainly due to interest rates, which have skyrocketed to 8.25%. Over half (53%) of New Zealanders indicate that a rise in interest rates would be their major concern in the event of a downturn in their local economy. Around 13% of Kiwis say they have no spare cash after they have covered living expenses, topping the Asia Pacific region.

Across Asia Pacific, consumer confidence in Australia (-11), Hong Kong (-9), Vietnam (-11), Singapore (-12), and the Philippines (-9) also sank significantly. In other markets across Asia, particularly Vietnam, China and Singapore, escalating inflation continues to be a concern, with 67% of consumers across the region citing inflation as their biggest concern in the event of an economic downturn.

A high 89% of Japanese believe their job prospects are either not so good or downright bad, mirroring their bottom league ranking in global consumer confidence.

The world’s most avid savers have always hailed from Asia Pacific, where an average of 57% of consumers choose to build their nest eggs. The top 10 saving countries are all from this region, with Singapore (69%), the Philippines (65%) and Thailand (65%) leading the charge.

Methodology The six-monthly survey is conducted online with 26,000 regular Internet users in 48 markets across Europe, North and South America, and Asia Pacific.

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ASIA PACIFIC - The Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index (CCCI)

Latest results (June 2008) Consumer confidence in China inched up by 0.2 point to 95.1.

In June, consumer sentiment on current conditions rose by a strong 2.5 points from the previous month as general price rises continued to ease. Sentiment on both current personal finances and durable goods purchases rebounded.

The Future Expectations Index performed relatively well and fell only a modest 1.2 points. As the Olympics approach, and negative factors such as inflation seem to be controllable within a certain period, it is predicted that consumer confidence is not likely to fall much in the next couple of months but should stabilize or rise back.

In terms of major cities, consumer sentiment in June rose in Beijing and Guangzhou, but fell in Shanghai.

Methodology The Xinhua Finance eziData China Consumer Confidence Index was launched by financial information provider Xinhua Finance Limited (XFL) and produced in conjunction with Dr Richard Curtin, Research Professor and Director at the Institute of Social Research of the USA's University of Michigan. It is compiled by financial and consumer tracker MR agency eziData, which surveys 1,500 Chinese households each month via stratified random sampling in 50 representative cities across the eastern, middle and western parts of China.

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ASIA PACIFIC - MasterCard MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence, Asia Pacific

Latest results (second quarter 2008) Emerging Asian economies continue to be affected by the US economy.

The Asia/Pacific region's current consumer outlook (56.0) for the next six months is slightly optimistic largely boosted by high optimism in Singapore (87.3), Hong Kong (83.1), China (82.7), Vietnam (86.2) and Taiwan's resurrection (71.3) from three consecutive years of pessimism while the remaining eight markets are mostly either rather pessimistic as in the case of Indonesia (36.7), Malaysia (36.9), New Zealand (37.1) or very pessimistic as with Thailand (23.7), Korea (27.7) and Japan (29.0).

The Index of Consumer Confidence is 56.0 compared to 69.3 for the last period, 67.9 a year ago and the region's historical average of 60.2. This ranks as the ninth lowest since 2Q 1993.

As many as eight out of the thirteen markets are currently pessimistic compared to the average three or four seen at any one period.

Five markets namely, Korea (27.7 versus 26.1); Malaysia (36.9 versus 40.9); New Zealand (37.1 versus 38.5); Australian (42.8 versus 43.0); Philippines (43.2 versus 47.7) and Thailand (23.7 versus 25.6) are currently as pessimistic or even marginally more so than they were during the last financial crisis.
Singapore [87.3] is the only market to exhibit very high-sustained consumer optimism since the last period and a year ago.

Methodology The survey is conducted every six months among a sample of 400+ consumers in each of the 13 markets listed above. It is based on responses to questions about five issues: economic factors, employment, economy, regular income, stock market, and quality of life. It measures consumers’ views about the forthcoming six months. The index has a range of 0 to 100. A score of 50 denotes a neutral situation, while anything above 50 denotes optimism.

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SOUTH ASIA, MID EAST, AFRICA - MasterCard MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence, South Asia, Africa and Middle East (SAMEA)


Latest results (first half 2008) Six of the eight markets surveyed were optimistic about the next six months. These include the four Gulf Markets; UAE (85.4), Qatar (88.6), KSA (80.1) and Kuwait (89.4) with India (82.1) and South Africa (74.3) making up the rest. Two markets namely: Egypt (32.3) and Lebanon (32.0) were rather pessimistic.

The SAMEA region as a group of markets (70.6) remains fairly optimistic about the next six months even though consumer sentiments are a bit weaker than the last period (78.4), a year ago (79.3) and its historical average (76.4).

Kuwait (89.4), Qatar (88.6) and United Arab Emirates (85.4) represent the top three performing markets in this 1H 2008 MasterIndex. Next comes India (82.1), Saudi Arabia (80.1) and then South Africa (74.3) trailed by Egypt (32.3) and Lebanon (32.0). As with the current SAMEA region Index, all markets except the UAE witness a softening of consumer sentiments. (Qatar has no back data for comparison.)

Amidst a softer outlook in the Region, ME & L and in most markets, United Arab Emirates (85.4) emerges as the only market with stronger consumer sentiments than the last period (78.5) and a directionally more positive outlook than its historical average (83.2).

Methodology See MasterIndex Asia Pacific, above.

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MIDDLE EAST - Bayt.com Consumer Confidence Index


Latest results (June 15, 2008) Consumer confidence has witnessed a considerable drop in the UAE dipping by 9 index points. Consumer confidence has also dropped across the GCC region, dipping by 7 index points in Qatar and 3 points in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as compared to levels measured in January of this year.

Of the surveyed North African countries, Egypt also noted a dip in confidence dropping 8 points, while Algeria witnessed a marked improvement, moving up 2 points.

The drop from previous scores in terms of consumer expectations and optimism towards the future was most notable in Qatar, the UAE and Egypt, dropping by 11 points in Qatar and 6 points each in the latter two. Kuwait by comparison remained relatively stable in terms of consumer expectations. All respondents remain optimistic that their country’s economy would be better in a year’s time – with respondents in Oman and Bahrain at 48% and 44% respectively registering as the most optimistic.

With regard to the current economic climate, results were largely negative – only 19% of all correspondents cited it as a good time to buy and 38% consider it bad. The most marked decrease in the index was the UAE – dropping by 18 points followed by Egypt, which dropped 12 points. Saudi Arabia marked a slight improvement, suggesting consumer spending behaviour could improve in the Kingdom.

Methodology Polling firm YouGovSiraj launched the index in partnership with Dubai-based job site, Bayt.com. The first wave of the online survey questioned more than 12,518 people across the GCC, Levant and North Africa regions, and future surveys will be conducted on a quarterly basis.

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NEW ZEALAND - Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

Latest results (July 4, 2008) The early July NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is at a record low of 82 points, down 5.6 points since mid June and 39.4 points lower than this time last year.

A record 64% (up 2%) of New Zealanders expect the country to have bad times financially in the next 12 months, while only 16% (unchanged) look forward to good times.

More New Zealanders (58% - up 8%) than ever before are feeling worse off financially since this time last year, and just 22% (down 3%) say they are better off.

The highest number of New Zealanders to date (49% - up 4%) say that now is a bad time to buy major household items, and 35% (down 2%) think it’s a good time to buy.

During the next five years 37% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expect bad times for New Zealand as a whole, while a record number (36%) of New Zealanders expect bad times.

Although 40% (up 1%) of New Zealanders are expecting to be better off financially in the next 12 months, a record high (33%) are expecting to be worse off.

Methodology The rating was conducted across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,002 people aged 14 and over.

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AUSTRALIA - Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

Latest results (June 2008) The June rating is 90.7, down 6.4 points from May and a massive 31.6 points below the June 2007 result of 122.3. This latest result is the lowest since December 1991.

Driving this fall is the increased number of Australians who say they and their family are financially worse than this time last year - 45% (up 10% from May and 20% from January). Only 22% (down 6% from May) of Australians believe that they and their family are financially better off than this time last year.

Fewer Australians expect good times financially in the next 12 months - 22% (down 4% from May and 16% since January). 39% of Australians (steady since May, but up 14% since January) expect bad times financially in the next 12 months.

Looking further into the future, 26% of Australians (down 3% since May and 9% since January) believe we’ll have good times during the next 5 years. Similarly, 26% believe we will have bad times in the next 5 years (steady from May, and up 8% since January).

The number of Australians saying now is a bad time to buy major household items is 38% (up 3% since April and up 18% since January) while 33% (down 1% from April and down a significant 19% since January) say now is a good time to buy major household items.

Now, 31% (down 1% from April and 8% since December) expect their family to be financially better off in a year, and 31% (up 4% from April and 15% since January) of Australians say that they and their family expect to be worse off in a year.

Methodology This rating is based on 1,176 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over.

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