Pollsters Got 'Every Major Election Right' in 2017

Pollsters predicted the correct outcome of every major national election held in 2017, according to research conducted by Kantar.

Following three polling 'misreads' in a row - the UK's 2015 general election, the 2016 'Brexit' vote to leave the EU, and the US Presidential election - the study conducted by Kantar's Lightspeed division examined polling around the fifteen major international legislative and presidential elections in 2017, and found that the winning outcome was correctly forecast in all fifteen. In addition, fourteen of those examined were correctly forecast with an accuracy 'better than historical international norms'. Overall, the average polling error for the fifteen elections was just +/-1.9%, 24% lower than the international norm of +/-2.5%.

The most accurate polls of the year were conducted in France during the first round of the Presidential election, when the polls predicted the result with an accuracy of +/-0.2%, compared to the industry average polling error for first round votes of +/-6%. Germany's polling industry performed most consistently, forecasting the result to within +/- 1.5% for the fourth election in a row. Meanwhile, the UK's polls predicted the result of the general election with an average absolute error of +/- 1.5%, significantly lower than the +/- 1.9% international average for 2017.

Jon Puleston, VP of Innovation at Lightspeed, comments: 'Polling companies around the world are judged by how accurately their polling projections predict the outcome of elections. So, an exceptionally consistent year like this is worthy of some recognition'.

The full report is available at: https://uk.kantar.com .

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.