Mobiles a Problem for Pollsters

US technology trade group the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) says that polling companies may be leaving as many as eight million US households out of their calculations due to consumers changing to cellular phones as the sole means of taking calls.

According to CEA President and CEO Gary Shapiro 'Number portability, advanced text messaging and voicemail features, and most importantly, falling prices for service plans are all allowing more and more consumers to cut the cord to their traditional landline services. This trend is without question making it harder for political pollsters to get an accurate read on local, state and national races'.

Online research conducted by CEA between October 2 and October 5 among 568 likely voters shows cellular-only consumers receive far less polling solicitations than those with traditional landline service: only 10% said they had received at least one polling solicitation in the last 60 days. Compared to nearly 30% of consumers who also have, or rely exclusively on, traditional landline service.

The cellular-only group are more likely to be independents/politically unaffiliated than the general population (37% don't consider themselves Republicans or Democrats, compared to 28% of all likely voters). The group is also much younger, more likely to be single, employed part-time or not at all (mostly students) and have lower average incomes.

Call-screening is also said to be affecting poll results. Republicans are 25% more likely than Democrats to have responded to at least one poll despite being equally likely to receive such calls - and this may be in part due to Democrats screening calls (44% say they do so, versus 27% of Republicans).

CEA provides members with services including technical training and education, industry promotion, engineering standards development, market research and legislative advocacy; and is online at www.ce.org

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.