UK Consumer Confidence Plummets

Research carried out this month by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission indicates that consumer confidence is still falling. The October Consumer Confidence Barometer (CCB), which measures the public's confidence in the UK's economic climate, shows confidence dropping by 4 points to register a score of -5, the lowest score since the fuel crisis last autumn.

The most marked deterioration is with confidence in the future of the general economic situation, which has fallen by 13 points and now stands at -33. This is the lowest score registered for this measure since September 1990, which was during the time of the last major recession.

October results also show that 61% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the next twelve months. The measure gauging perceptions of the level of unemployment over the next 12 months has increased by 13 points this month and now stands at +35. This is the highest score recorded for this measure since December 1998 (when a score of +36 was registered). The score is also up 26 points compared to this time last year (when the measure stood at +9). This month's result is somewhat unsurprising considering the recent media reports of large-scale redundancies in some key sectors.

However, whilst consumers are expressing less faith in the economy and employment during the next twelve months, the survey also indicates that in general people do not feel that their personal finances have yet been affected and so do not intend to change their spending behaviour. This result is backed up by retail sales reports, which have not recorded any downturn at present.

This is the first full wave of research Martin Hamblin GfK has conducted since the events in the US on 11th September. In September's survey, consumer confidence was seen to drop by one point. However, a number of the interviews had been conducted before the terrorist incident had taken place.

This research is carried out monthly by Martin Hamblin GfK on behalf of the European Commission. The survey was conducted amongst a sample of 2,037 individuals aged 16 plus. Quotas were imposed on age, sex, region, social class and income to ensure the final sample was representative of the UK population. Interviewing was conducted from Tuesday 1st October to 19th October. The figures contained within the Consumer Confidence Barometer have an estimated margin of error of +/-2%. Results for the Consumer Confidence Barometer are available on the penultimate working day of each

All articles 2006-22 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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