Optimism for US Grocery Manufacturers

ACNielsen U.S. has released findings from its new Consumer Pre*View service that provide positive news for the domestic consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry.

According to new attitudinal research conducted among households in the ACNielsen Homescan consumer panel, consumers are planning to cut back on restaurant dining and are more likely to buy American-made grocery products - findings that could translate into increased sales of certain packaged goods later this year.

These latest findings come on the heels of a recent ACNielsen study that found the University of Michigan's monthly Consumer Sentiment Index to be a leading indicator of consumer spending on packaged food, non-food packaged goods and health and beauty items. ACNielsen found that changes in consumer sentiment measured by the University lead to changes in actual purchase behaviour as recorded by the ACNielsen Homescan panel. The research indicates that attitudes measured today typically affect actual CPG purchasing nine months in the future.

Based on a recent strengthening in consumer sentiment, ACNielsen anticipates an increase in consumer spending on CPG items in the third quarter of 2002. The University of Michigan's preliminary January Consumer Sentiment Index reading was 94.2-up from 88.8 in December and well above the 81.8 low in September 2001 following the terrorist attacks.

'Clearly, these are positive findings for the consumer packaged goods industry,' according to Nick Sorvillo, senior vice president, ACNielsen Homescan. 'We now have the means to more clearly anticipate consumer purchasing of packaged goods and the indications look good for the latter half of this year. There are certainly events that could prevent the expected sales increase from happening, but barring any significant negative developments, we feel confident in painting an optimistic picture for the consumer packaged goods industry later this year.'

Both the analysis of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index's impact on purchasing of consumer packaged goods and the quarterly Homescan consumer panel surveys are part of the new ACNielsen service, Consumer Pre*View, which provides guidance to the consumer products industry on consumer attitudes and their impact on the industry.

Consumer Pre*View research conducted through the ACNielsen Homescan panel in December 2001 and January 2002 found that 27% of U.S. consumers plan to dine out for dinner less often in the next three months. Younger and lower income consumers are more likely than others to reduce restaurant visits.

'The restaurant dining numbers are particularly noteworthy,' according to Sorvillo. 'CPG manufacturers who have focused on making meal preparation easier should benefit most from this trend. Trading restaurant meals for meals made from scratch is not very realistic, but trading them for simple-to-prepare at-home meals is.'

In addition, 35% of U.S. consumers said they are now more likely to buy American-made grocery products than they were last year. Older and lower-income consumers reported the highest likelihood of buying American-made grocery products. Sorvillo added that the interest in buying American is a good marketing opportunity. 'These days it's not always easy to tell where products are made. Some domestic-sounding items are actually from other countries and vice versa. So, for those truly American-made products, now is the time to make sure consumers know that they were made here.'

All articles 2006-22 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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