Trend in E-commerce Set to Slow in Germany

New forecasts by GfK Panel Services Consumer Research show that online transactions (excluding home banking) by private households in Germany are expected to total over EUR 4.7 billion in 2002. Although this represents a marked increase on the previous year's volume of EUR 4.3 billion, growth is not proportional to the increase in the number of Internet users in the same period.

In the first eight months of 2002, private households have continued to purchase mainly two types of products online. These are media products such as books, audio tapes/CDs and videos and consumer durables such as computers and peripherals and telecommunications products. Increasingly, used telecommunications products are also being purchased through online auctions. Conversely, like travel arrangements via traditional channels, online travel bookings are down on the same period in the previous year.

A time series analysis shows that there is stability in terms of purchasing frequency and the price per purchase. As a result, the overall average spending per online shopper has also remained stable. This means that growth in sales is mainly attributable to the increase in the number of Internet shoppers.

Currently, there is only a slight increase in the number of private households going online for the first time. In view of this trend, future growth in online sales will depend on whether online providers achieve an increase in both purchasing frequency and average transaction amount per purchase by offering new services and enhancing their range of goods and/or services.

The above data, which was collected as part of the GfK Web Scope survey, is based on online and offline continuous written data collection from a representative sample of 10,000 Internet users. GfK Panel Services Consumer Research uses GfK Web Scope to collect continuous data on the online purchasing behaviour of private consumers.

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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