Daily Research News Online no. 2521 - Early Running for the Democratic Nomination

Early Running for the Democratic Nomination

August 4 2003

The race for the Democratic nomination for the US Presidency is wide open at present with four candidates polling between 12 and 16% of votes in a recent Ipsos/Cook Political Report Poll. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has come into the running with a rise from 7% in May to 12% choosing him now.

Dean's support appears strongest in the following subgroups:

Individuals age 75 or older (22%)
Men age 45 or older (17%)
People with a college degree (18%)
Residents of the Mountain region (AZ, NM, NV, UT, CO, ID, WY, MT) (25%)
Residents of New England (17%)

Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman has dropped two points since May, as has North Carolina's John Edwards *, while Florida's Bob Graham has seen his support halve to four points. 16% of Democratic primary voters select Lieberman as their choice for the Democratic Presidential nomination, equal top with John Kerry of Massachusetts. The subgroups showing the strongest support for Lieberman include:

Individuals aged 65-74 (20%) and 50-64 (19%)
Hispanics (20%)
Women with less than a college degree (20%)
Residents of the Northeast (24%)
Residents of suburban areas (20%)
Individuals who approve of Bush's handling of the economy (21%)
People who feel the country is headed in the right direction (19%)
Active investors (22%)
Residents of 'strong Gore' counties (20%)

The proportion volunteering (unprompted) the name of Hilary Clinton has fallen from 3% in May to 1% in July.

Ipsos-Public Affairs interviewed for the Cook Political Report a representative sample of 2,000 adult Americans nationwide, including 501 likely Democratic primary and/or caucus voters, between July 8-10 and July 22-24, 2003.

* Note that the margin of error for the combined surveys is +/-2.2% for all adults, +/-4.5% for registered voters and several of the above findings fall within this, so caution should be used in interpreting results.

A full table of candidates and May / July results is available at www.ipsos-pa.com/goto.cfm?id=1875

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.