Obesity Stats and Strategies
October 21 2003
The war on obesity continues to fascinate the US press and attract column inches on a scale comparable to the war on terrorism. Three recent studies / surveys, of which DRNO presents a digest (sic) this morning, highlight the nature of the problem, the response, and some possible opportunities.
The first is based on an analysis of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey, conducted by the CDCP in the US among 1.5m respondents (making it, apparently, the world's largest telephone survey). The analysis is by RAND Health, a division of the non-profit RAND Corporation. The analysis suggests that whereas studies to date have focused on changes in moderate obesity, defined as a body mass index of 30 or more, they underestimate the long-term social and cost consequences of obesity because morbidity and use of health services are much higher among severely obese individuals, a much faster-growing group in both senses.
RAND economist Roland Sturm, author of the report, said the findings challenge a common belief held by physicians that people who are clinically obese are a fixed proportion of the population and are not affected by changes in eating and physical activity patterns in the general population.
The study suggests that clinically severe obesity, instead of being a rare pathological condition among genetically vulnerable individuals, is an integral part of the population's weight distribution. As the whole population becomes heavier, the extreme category - the severely obese - grows the fastest.
The chart below shows three levels of obesity with corresponding BMI (body mass index, defined as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in meters), minimum amount overweight and minimum weight for each group, among men and women. The last two columns show prevalence in the population in the 1986 study and in 2000.
| Condition | BMI | lbs over-
weight(m) | wt lbs
5'10"(m) | wt lbs
5'4"(f) | 1986
1 in.. | 2000
1 in.. |
| Moderate obesity | 30+ | | 209 | 174 | | 3 |
| Clinically severe obesity | 40+ | 100+ | 300 | 250 | 200 | 50 |
| Most overweight | 50+ | 150+ | 373 | | 2,000 | 400 |
According to Sturm, 'These findings have enormous implications for the nation's health care system because treatment rates for diabetes, hypertension, and other chronic problems are several times higher among severely obese individuals than among the moderately obese. With these growth rates, accommodating severely obese patients in clinical practice will no longer be an unusual occurrence, and doctors, hospitals and other health providers must be prepared to treat these people on a regular basis'.
Meanwhile the
NPD Group's
Annual Eating Patterns in America report, which includes tracking of the Body Mass Index (BMI) of adults, has announced that in 2003 Americans 'lost weight for the first time in six years' and suggests that they may be 'finally getting it'. The 18th issue of the report found that the proportion of the population overweight is down from 56% in 2002 to 55%, having climbed from 50% in 1998.
According to expert analyst Harry Balzer, 'It looks like people are interested in a balanced diet; they ate more fruits and vegetables last year than the year before and snacked less in the evening. People are more concerned about fat, cholesterol, sugar and additives in their diets than they have been. That's new - it was hot in the '80s but has dropped off since then.
The report highlights a change in attitude from 'I want to lose 20 pounds' in the '90s (people didn't - they continued to gain weight) to being more interested in health. More people plan their meals to be nutritious (up to 35% from 32% in 2001) and 66% claim to exercise strenuously at least once a week, up from 63% in 2002.
According to Blazer, in 18 years that NPD has produced the report, 'there have been more changes in last year's eating trends than ever seen before'.
Eating Patterns in America, 'The Food Industry Bible', tracks the daily consumption habits of hundreds of thousands of Americans and includes data collected from 35 NPD databases.
Every crisis, as any good management guru will tell you, is also an opportunity, and the third study, published by
IRI, is
'Consumers Attacking Obesity - Identifying CPG Opportunities'.
Opportunities abound for products, wellness plans and increased education, according to this latest in IRI's 'Times & Trends' series.
The report examines overweight consumer shopping trends, and provides detailed implications and recommendations for manufacturers and retailers. According to Ed Kuehnle, Group President of IRI North America, 'Not only are today's marketers grappling with issues around America's general health concerns, they must also try to understand where their individual food and beverage brands stand today relative to the obese and overweight individual'.
Key findings from the report include:
- 'Better-for-you' products are on the rapid rise again - Soy products, nutritional / energy / wellness bars, weight-control categories, bottled energy drinks, and sport and water beverages are experiencing significant growth. In the supermarket channel, they have averaged +18% growth as a group per year over the past five years.
- 'L' brands are growing - 'Light, lean, low and less of'. Consumers have renewed interest in brands like Weight Watchers, Lean Cuisine and Healthy Choice. After years of declining sales, these and as many as 1,400 brands with better-for-you words in their brand names grew a combined +6.7% in 2002 in just the supermarket channel.
- Portable weight-loss beverages have big potential - Portable nutrition/wellness snack bars remain hot growth areas. With the exception of waters and diet soft drinks, beverages for weight loss are underdeveloped and offer potential.
- Simplicity is popular - the upsurge in low carb diet plans, Weight Watchers and the Special K Challenge indicates that consumers are interested in reading labels and following easy steps. CPG manufacturers need to link wellness attributes with easy-to-follow, easy-to-maintain plans and regimens.
- Understanding overweight/obesity relationships with other diseases is critical.
'Consumers Attacking Obesity' uses IRI's InfoScan(r) Reviews Advantage Retail Tracking Service, its Consumer Network 70,000 household panel and insights from its RxPulse suite of healthcare services.
More information is available at
www.infores.com/public/timesandtrends/tt_execbriefarchive.htm
All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.
