BrainJuicer Opens Election Prediction Unit
September 8 2016
Brand strategy and research agency BrainJuicer has launched a specialist unit called 'System1 Politics', which will use the behavioural science principle behind its 3Fs model (Fame, Feeling & Fluency) to forecast the results of elections.
The term System1 thinking was coined by psychologist and Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman to describe the way consumers make most of their decisions: quickly, intuitively and emotionally. Applying what the firm calls the 'basic laws of consumer psychology' to political choice, System1 Politics will work on the premise that people use three 'baseline heuristics' to make decisions:
- Fame - 'if something comes easily to mind, it's a good choice'
- Feeling - 'if I feel good about something, it's a good choice'
- Fluency - 'if something is quickly recognisable, it's a good choice'.
The firm says these three areas predict the brands people will buy and how people will vote, and that the US candidate who performs best on the combined 3Fs will win. System1 Politics will report a new wave of data every Tuesday on its site:
www.system1politics.com, focusing on the changes in 'Feeling', and offering a sample of consumers' raw emotional reaction to the two US candidates.
The decision to set up the unit, led by Senior Director Tom Ewing (pictured), resulted from the
failure of the polls to predict the 2015 UK election, overestimating Labour and underestimating Conservative support in the run-up. According to CEO John Kearon, the unit's pilot studies correctly predicted both the Trump candidacy and the outcome of the Brexit vote. 'This project combines the innovative techniques of BrainJuicer and the philosophy and planning acumen of our
System1 creative agency. It's a great showcase of our work and we'd encourage any media outlets or political parties to get in touch if they want to understand the real dynamics of politics beyond the false precision of polling', Kearon adds.
Web site:
www.brainjuicer.com .
All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.
