Half of MPs Can't Solve Simple Maths Question, Says RSS

Half of UK MPs (members of parliament) were unable to answer a simple probability question correctly, according to a survey conducted by the Royal Statistical Society (RSS).

A total of 101 MPs were surveyed by Savanta ComRes on behalf of the society and asked the question: 'If you toss a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?' Just 52% of MPs gave the correct answer of 25%, compared with ten years ago, when the RSS poll found that 40% of MPs got the answer right. Of those questioned in the most recent survey, 50% of Conservative MPs gave the correct answer, while 53% of Labour MPs were right.

The politicians were also tested on their knowledge of averages and were asked: 'If you roll a six-sided dice, if the rolls are 1,3,4,1 and 6, what are the mean and mode values?' Around two-thirds, 64%, of respondents were able to identify that the mean value was three, while 63% gave the correct answer of one for the mode. Additionally, the RSS wanted to gain a view on MPs knowledge of how the results of lateral flow tests should be viewed - a question that tests the understanding of Bayesian statistics. Those surveyed were asked: 'Suppose there was a diagnostic test for a virus. The false-positive rate (the proportion of people without the virus who get a positive result) is one in 1,000. You have taken the test and tested positive. What is the probability that you have the virus?' Of the politicians surveyed, 16% gave the correct answer that there was not enough information to know.

Stian Westlake, CEO of the Royal Statistical Society, comments: 'Statistical skills are vital for good decision-making and effective scrutiny. While we're pleased to see that it looks like MPs' knowledge in this area has improved, the survey results highlight that more needs to be done to ensure our elected representatives have the statistical skills needed for the job.'

Web sites: www.rss.org.uk and www.comresglobal.com .

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.