Kashmir and Conflict Survey from MORI

The vast majority of Kashmiris oppose India and Pakistan going to war to find a permanent solution to the situation in Kashmir. This is the main finding of a new MORI poll on the recent escalation of conflict in the region.

The survey shows that most Kashmiris believe the correct way to bring peace to the region is through democratic elections, ending violence, and economic development. There is also virtually no support for the state of Jammu and Kashmir being divided on the basis of religion or ethnic group.

Although the vast majority in the regions of Jammu and Leh believe the correct way to bring about peace is though democratic elections, opinions are more evenly divided in and around Srinagar, with a bare majority (52 percent) agreeing with this view. Nevertheless, the vast majority - 76 percent - of those in the Srinagar region believe India and Pakistan should not go to war to bring about a permanent solution. There is a general consensus across the regions that it is not possible to hold democratic elections while violence continues - 65 percent agree while 34 percent disagree.

A very clear majority of the population - 65 percent - believes the presence of foreign militants in Jammu and Kashmir is damaging to the Kashmir cause, and most of the rest take the view that it is neither damaging nor helpful. Overall, two thirds of people in Jammu and Kashmir take the view that Pakistan's involvement in the region for the last ten years has been bad. Only 15 percent believe it has been good for the region, while 18 percent say it has made no real difference.

On the issue of citizenship, overall, 61 percent said they felt they would be better off politically and economically as an Indian citizen and only 6 percent as a Pakistani citizen, but 33 percent said they did not know. People in all regions are in general agreement that 'the unique cultural identity of Jammu and Kashmir - Kashmiryat - should be preserved in any long-term solution'. Overall, 81 percent agree, including 76 percent in Srinagar and 81 percent in Jammu.

An overwhelming 92 percent oppose the state of Kashmir being divided on the basis of religion or ethnicity. There is also overwhelming support - 91 percent - for a forum in which Kashmiris from both sides of the Line of Control can discuss common interests. A clear majority - 70 percent - also support the borders between Pakistani-controlled Kashmir and Indian Kashmir being opened for much more trade and cultural exchange. However, while the views in Srinagar and Leh were very decisive - over 90 percent support - those in Jammu were much more balanced - 47 percent support, 53 percent oppose.

Perceptions are different with respect to human rights violations by militant groups in Jammu and Kashmir. 96 percent of those in Jammu believe such violations are widespread whereas only 2 percent of those in Srinagar believe they are widespread (although 33 percent believe they are 'occasional').

The survey fieldwork was carried out by FACTS Worldwide, MORI's affiliate company in India, between 20 - 28 April 2002. In total, 850 interviews were completed, face-to-face, with adults aged 16+ across 55 localities within Jammu and Kashmir.

All articles 2006-22 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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