Bans on Pre-election Polls
September 29 2003
Bans on pre-election opinion polls are still in place in many countries, and in some have recently been put in place or increased in scope, according to a recent study conducted by the Foundation for Information in association with ESOMAR and WAPOR. Those maintaining or increasing bans include some EU countries.
Pre-election opinion polls are estimated to account for not more than about 3% of the US$16 billion opinion and market research turnover worldwide, but obviously attract a high profile in the press relative to most other research. The report points out polls can be commissioned not just by the media but to help shape legislation and monitor the public response towards policies.
Comparison of embargo periods prior to elections in 56 countries from 1996 and 2002
| Continent(s) | 9 countries increased embargo | 5 countries no change in embargo period | 15 countries reduced embargo | 27 countries, no embargo in 1996 or in 2002 |
| Europe (incl Russia, Turkey) | Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece, Macedonia, Slovenia, Switzerland | Croatia, Luxembourg, Spain | France, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Turkey | Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, The Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Ukraine, UK |
| Asia inc Mid East, Aus | Israel, Rep. of Korea | | Indonesia, Kazakstan, New Zealand | Australia, India, Japan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, UAE |
| Africa | | | South Africa | Nigeria |
| Americas | Argentina | Bolivia, Mexico | Canada Colombia, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela | Brazil Puerto Rico United States |
Source: ESOMAR / WAPOR
Thirty of the 66 countries surveyed in 2002 had some kind of restrictions, and the many countries for which information is not available are by definition likely to be those where restrictions are more likely.
Even among western democracies there are some which prohibit the publication of opinion polls one, two or even three weeks prior to an election. In total, of 56 countries surveyed in both 1996 and 2002, restrictions have now been liberalised or even lifted in 15, stayed unchanged in five and been increased in nine. In addition, there are 12 fewer countries included in 2002 (66 versus 78 in 1996) indicating increased difficulty in getting accurate information and perhaps an overall increase in the use of restrictions.
South Africa is seen by the organisations running the study as the biggest success of the last 6 years, with polls results now freely published up to the day before the election, where previously the country stipulated a six week period during which polls could be conducted but results not published.
ESOMAR and WAPOR believe that 'the freedom to conduct opinion and market research, the right to know, the access to information, are all vital to success in tomorrow's society' and express the hope that 'the publication of this report will help alert and mobilise political leadership and public opinions to the need to safeguard and further strengthen the right to free information'. The contrary opinion, still held of course by many in western society and not involved in the opinion polling business, is that voters 'need a quiet period in which to reflect for a few days before casting their votes' - this much is acknowledged by the sponsoring organisations, although opponents tend to go further, and suggest that it might actually be undesirable for voters to be too much influenced by what others
claim to think instead of making up their own minds. This is described by ESOMAR / WAPOR as 'believing that ordinary voters should be denied access to relatively objective information about how other people like themselves think about the issues of the day'.
The Foundation for Information is an independent organisation formed in 1996 by ESOMAR and aiming to protect the rights of individuals and commercial enterprises to obtain and make use of information without any unfair or unnecessary restrictions. WAPOR (the World Association for Political and Opinion Research) aims to further the use of scientific survey research in national and international affairs, is a member of the International Social Science Council (ISSC) and is supported by UNESCO.
All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.
