Challenge to Canadian Liberals

Thirty-nine per cent of Canadians say they are likely to vote for the new Conservative Party of Canada, according to a new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll released today. The party will be the result of the recently announced merger between the federal Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance.

The figure represents a decline of seven points since the last sounding on this issue in early October when only rumours of a merger were in the air, but would still mean a formidable challenge to the governing Liberal party.

The Canadian Alliance, and its precursor, the Reform Party, were frustrated by their inability over several elections to build strong support in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec, but Canadians do not feel the merger will solve this problem. More than two thirds (68%) think that the new Conservative Party is just the Alliance taking over the Progressive Conservatives, and that they will still face the same problems attracting voters in Ontario and Quebec.

Former Ontario Premier Mike Harris is expected to make an announcement in November about whether, in line with speculation, he will run for the leadership of the new party. Only one in three (32%) Canadians say that they would seriously consider voting for this party in the next election if he becomes leader, whereas just under half (46%) strongly disagree.

The numbers likely to vote for the new Conservative Party represent a significant increase on the current federal political standings of its two constituent parties. According to the poll, if an election were to be held tomorrow, the Liberals (46%, -1 point from early October) would end up with the most support, followed by the current Progressive Conservatives (15%, +1 point), the current Canadian Alliance (11%, -2 points), the NDP (11%, -1 point), and the Green Party (4%, unchanged). The Bloc Quebecois (8% national, -1 point) would receive support from 31% of Quebecers, down from 38% in early October.

The poll was conducted between October 21st and October 24th, by telephone, with a randomly selected sample of 1,056 adult Canadians.

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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