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Consumers in both Britain and Germany are showing positive signs in the run-up to Christmas. The GfK consumer climate survey for November 2003 sees Germans expressing hope that the economy is finally recovering and that their personal finances are improving, while Mintel are predicting that shoppers in the UK will spend more than last Christmas.
The GfK findings follow months of negative results. All its consumer mood indicators have improved.
The economic outlook indicator rose by almost eleven points in November to 0.3 (the first time since last October that the figure has been positive), with key reasons being the global economic recovery and, in particular, economic revival in the USA; rising exports in recent weeks; and increasingly positive company press releases.
Germans are also more positive about their personal finances: the income expectations indicator rose by six points to -0.9, which very nearly compensated for the losses of the previous month, and is almost 24 points higher than a year ago.
Among pensioners the result was very different - the value decreased by six points from October to November. Pensioners represent almost 30% of the total German population over 14. The 'Nullrunde 2004' (zero pension) programme announced by the government in mid-October and its intention to make pensioners pay full pension contributions themselves in future have disappointed those involved.
The major purchase intention indicator rose slightly (+5 points) for the fourth month in a row, to -25.8 points, almost 30 points higher than the corresponding value for November 2002. This indicator in particular is difficult to interpret in the run-up to Christmas, obviously, with consumers' paypackets boosted by bonuses - it will be interesting to see if this upturn is maintained into the new year.
The 'GfK-Wirtschaftsdienst Konsum- und Sparklima' (GfK financial services, consumer and savings climate) survey is published by GfK Marktforschung, based on 2,000 monthly consumer interviews carried out on behalf of the EU Commission.
The Mintel report shows that consumer confidence in the UK is running high this Christmas. Many people are planning to spend more this Christmas than they did last year and expect to do at least some of their Christmas shopping on-line.
Almost one in three (29%) adults is looking to spend more this Christmas than they did last year, with one in twenty (5%) planning to spend substantially more. Just over half (52%) are going to spend about the same, and only 18% plan to spend less.
'Despite higher levels of taxation hitting most people's pockets, most people have remained confident about spending their money throughout 2003. It now seems very unlikely that people are suddenly going to reign in their spending before Christmas. So Christmas this year is going to be a pretty good one', comments Richard Caines, retail analyst at Mintel International.
The expected average spend on Christmas presents for close friends and family alone is over £300. Men spend more on Christmas presents than women - on average close to £315 versus £290. This is no doubt related to the fact that men are far more likely to do their shopping last minute (50% as opposed to 29% of women). However, Mintel's analyst thinks last minute shopping may be only partly due to disorganisation: 'Over the past few years many shops have started discounting in the last weeks before Christmas to boost sales. People may now be cottoning on to this and so waiting to the last minute so that they can get more presents at cheaper prices', according to Richard Caines.
Regional results apparently contradict the stereotype of the tight Scotsman - those living in Scotland spend the most on Christmas presents for their friends and family, around £340 each. In the south of England the average is less than £310.
One in six (16%) people are planning to spend £500 or more, and one in twenty (5%) £1,000 or more. In any case, many people admit to spending more than they plan to at Christmas - 54% in this survey.
There is good news for online retailers. Almost one in four (23%) people are now planning on 'doing their Christmas shopping on-line', for various reasons:
All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.
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