Launch of Pharma Forecasting Service

Martin Hamblin GfK Global HealthCare has launched '1st Forecast', a new service for biotech and pharmaceutical companies, to determine the likely market success of a new compound in development.

1st Forecast combines management insight, secondary market and disease data and primary data to produce an independent forecast. It also enables commercial comparisons between markets and, over time, between candidate compounds, by providing a 'template' for data and conclusions.

The service aims to provide the same features and benefits as a customised study but for 25% less cost.

According to Martin Hamblin GfK, early stage forecasting makes sense because of the risks involved in bringing a new drug to market - doing so is estimated to cost, on average, around $600m, and current opinion holds that only 1 in 10,000 product 'discoveries' are really novel pharmaceutical breakthroughs.

1st Forecast involves five stages:

1. Desk Research - A review of secondary data
2. Qualitative tele-depths with opinion leaders
3. Qualitative face-to-face interviews with specialists
4. Semi-quantitative (telephone or internet) interviews with specialists
5. Market Forecast

The output covers:

• Potential market share or size of the opportunity, including a SWOT analysis
• Key clinical end points to optimise market entry and provide guidance for Phase III studies
• A description of the existing treatment landscape
• A broad identification of patient segments
• The existing treatment algorithm, by defined patient segment
• The predilection to prescribe, if appropriate.

According to Peter Goldberg, Research Director at Martin Hamblin GfK Global HealthCare, 1st Forecast is the logical culmination of many forecasting studies by the company. 'Our experience enabled us to design a programme which could be standardized for comparability and cost-effectiveness, yet at the same time retained some flexibility'.

Martin Hamblin GfK's web site is at www.martinhamblin-gfk.com

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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