Open Source – the Outlook for 2004

IT buyers expect spend on Open Source/Linux applications to grow by 2.8% in 2004, according to the NOP World Technology Confidence Barometer. Thirty per cent of organisations surveyed are using Open Source with a further 32% considering implementing it in the next 12 months.

The majority (79%) of those who have implemented Open Source use it with their Infrastructure Servers. Other widespread uses are Workgroups (38%) and Desktops (37%).

Among the third of companies who are considering Open Source, the primary reasons are reducing costs (61%) and improving technology performance (54%).

This leaves 38% of organisations who are not using Open Source and have no intention of doing so. Companies with less than 100 employees, and in the Wholesale and Retail sectors, are the most likely to be in this group. The biggest factor putting them off, mentioned by 44%, is the lack of the necessary expertise to implement it properly. Other major factors, each mentioned by just under a third, are uncertainty about the technical suitability of Open Source and the feeling that they lack support from management.

In spend terms, growth predictions for Open Source for this year are slightly below those for IT as a whole - the latter is predicted at 5.3% - however, the lower cost of Open Source/Linux compared to proprietary software means that the figures, according to NOP, 'probably understate the growing importance of such applications'.

Public sector organisations predict an average increase in spend of 2.8% on Open Source applications in 2004 - illustrating the priority that many in the public sector are placing on non-proprietary software solutions. In Germany, government departments have increasingly chosen to drop Microsoft in favour of Open Source. German IT decision makers predict that they will spend 4.3% more on Open Source applications in 2004 than 2003, compared to 2.7% in France, 2.6% in both the UK and the US.

CIOs have the most confidence that increased spend will be seen in Open Source/Linux. They predict increases in IT spend of 5.8%. Other senior managers are also expecting high growth in Open Source, with growth predictions of 4.5%. In contrast, IT managers are more sceptical, expecting only a 2.1% increase on last year's spend.

The survey was conducted online between September and November 2003, and results cover the views of IT decision makers in all sizes of company across the US and Europe: 1076 in the US, 233 in the UK, 129 in France and 113 in Germany.

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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