Nothing Beats 2003

UK consumer confidence is zero - but that's good news, honestly. The headline index in Martin Hamblin GfK's Consumer Confidence Barometer, conducted on behalf of the European Commission, has left the red for the first time since November 2002, leaping from -5 in December to the relative comfort of Nought.

The increase is driven primarily by improvements in the major purchases measure and expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months. Whilst January can be a month of optimism, not always well-placed, this year's figure is 3 points higher than that for January 2003.

January normally produces a good figure for major purchases, for obvious reasons - however, the increase of 17 points in January to +22 still leaves this index lower than in January 2003, and the big improvement over last year is in expectations for the general economic situation over the next twelve months. The latter has improved to -9, from -16 in December and compares very favourably with last January's -28.

Some of the other measures in the survey have shown little improvement or actually declined. Perceptions of the development of personal finances over the last twelve months have declined slightly to -2 from 0 in December, while expectations for their future have improved to +10 after 3 months at +8. Both measures are lower than the same time last year. Perceptions of the general economic situation in the country over the last twelve months remains at the same level as December, at -22.

Unsurprisingly perhaps given the sales, January is not always considered a good time to save. The index for this dropped slightly to +8 in January from +10 in December, but is still much higher than in January 2003 (-7).

The survey was conducted amongst a sample of 2005 people aged 16+, between 8th and 20th January 2004.

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas unless otherwise stated.

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