Another Happy Holiday for Online Sales
November 11 2004
Europe will outpace the US in online holiday sales this year, with eCommerce during the holiday season in Western Europe up 44% to EUR 13bn, according to forecasts by technology specialist Forrester Research. Forrester forecasts around EUR 10bn ($13bn) for the US, while a separate forecast by comScore Networks says it may top $15bn.
Forrester Report
Growth will be driven by more affluent online shoppers, an eCommerce push by traditional retailers, and the aggressive promotion of online stores according to the Forrester report, 'Europe's Online Holiday Sales: Merrier Than Ever'. In the UK, the Internet has become a key battleground for retails sales, with major retailers like Tesco and Sainsbury's starting to promote Christmas stock-ups as early as September.
'The UK will continue to lead the charge in online holiday sales', according to Consumer Markets Analyst Hellen Omwando, 'but Germany and Southern European countries will steal some of its share. Leisure travel will remain the largest money-spinner, followed closely by apparel'. Travel should bring in 21% of the total take, and apparel 17% - the latter reflecting ongoing migration from mail order to the Web, according to Omwando.
The UK has the highest penetration of online shoppers in Europe - its share is down from 36% of total online holiday sales in Europe last year to around a third this year (EUR 4.2 billion or £3 billion) but this reflects strong growth in countries previously lagging behind. France has only 9% but this is an increase on last year, whereas Spain has doubled its share to 4%. Germany is a strong contender with traditional retailers investing more in eCommerce - sales should reach around EUR 3.8 billion this year, up to 29% from 27% of the European total.
comScore Forecast
A separate forecast by comScore Networks this week says online holiday spending will grow by 23-26% compared to the same period last year. comScore says that consumer spending on non-travel goods at US Web sites will exceed $15 billion during the November through December season; and that total quarterly non-travel spending will cross the $20 billion threshold for the first time in Q4 2004.
Non-Travel Online Consumer Spending
Excludes Auctions and Large Corporate Purchases
Source: comScore Networks
| 2003
(in billions) | 2004
(in billions) | Percentage
Change |
| Year-to-date (through Oct 17) | $38.7 | $48.2 | 25% |
| Holiday Season (Nov/Dec) | $12.3 | $15.1-15.5* | 23-26%* |
| Q4 2004 | $16.7 | $20.7-21.1* | 24-26%* |
| Full Year | $52.9 | $65.8-66.2* | 25%* |
* comScore Networks forecast
Senior VP Dan Hess cites 'consumers' growing familiarity and confidence with online shopping, coupled with a dramatic increase in broadband penetration and continuing efforts by retailers to simplify the shopping process across channels' as reasons for the continued rapid growth. 'While forecasted growth will be slightly lower this season than last, online retailers will still close the year up about 25 percent compared to 2003 - an impressive accomplishment given mixed signals of consumer confidence and a soft economy in general'.
'At the category level,' says Hess, 'we continue to see strong growth in Jewelry & Watches, Furniture, Appliances & Equipment and Home & Garden products, indicating a continued shift to online buying in categories that were traditionally only bought offline'.
comScore will provide regular online updates regarding shopping behavior in the holiday season - details are at
www.comscore.com/list . Forrester's web site is at
www.forrester.com
All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.
