More Australians Believe in ALP Win

The Australian Labor Party has held a lead in the opinion polls for a while, but until now more people thought the governing Liberal-National Coalition would actually win an election. This weekend, for the first time, Roy Morgan Research's poll showed more people think the ALP will win.

In Australia, voting is compulsory, and the Morgan Poll monitors not only first preference but also voters' choice on a 'two-party preferred basis', ie given a straight choice between the two main contenders, which would they choose. On first preferences or 'primary support', the ALP leads with 45.5% (down 0.5% on early March) to 39.5% (up 0.5%) for the government, while on 'two-party preferred' the figures are 55.5% and 44.5% respectively, unchanged since February.

Voters are also asked 'Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?' In late March, for the first time, more electors think the ALP will win (43.5%), than the L-NP (41.5%). In contrast to actual voting preference, this has shifted massively since the election of new leader Mark Latham in early December, when only 21% thought the ALP would win the next election compared with 60% for the L-NP. Most of this movement took place in January and February but March has tipped the balance.

There is of course much international speculation at present about the effects of the Madrid bombing on the Spanish election - in particular the supposed 'electoral backlash' against the former government with its prominent membership of the 'coalition of the willing'. The Australian poll suggests that whether or not the Spanish result has contributed to changed views of what could happen in an Australian election, it hasn't changed views of what should happen. If anything voting intentions have shifted fractionally to the right during March but domestic events - such as Health Minister Tony Abbott's brokering of a deal on Medicare Plus legislation and the announcement of new education funding - may be more influential in this.

The latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 13/16 & March 20/21 with a nationwide cross-section of 2,193 electors. Voting intentions are analysed on a fortnightly basis. Roy Morgan Research's web site is at www.roymorgan.com

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.

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