Europeans Pragmatic, Pessimistic on Iraq

British adults may be more supportive than French or German of American involvement in Iraq, but they are just as pessimistic about the likely outcome / long-term situation, according to the latest TNS poll for CNN and TIME magazine. The poll also notes that pessimism does not always translate into support for the rapid withdrawal of troops.

Three quarters of adults in the three key European countries surveyed believe that President Bush will not succeed in bringing stability in Iraq during his second term in office. Respondents in Germany are the most pessimistic with just 13% thinking he will succeed, compared with 21% in Britain and 24% in France.

A narrow majority (51%) of respondents from all three countries feel that worldwide respect for the US will lessen over the next four years - with a further third (35%) saying that it will stay the same - presumably the latter includes some who feel it is rock bottom already. Just 11% of respondents in Britain and France believe that respect for the US will improve during Bush's second term, falling to just six per cent in Germany.

Despite this, respondents are by no means unanimous in their desire to see a withdrawal of US troops in the near future. 52% of Britons, 39% in Germany and even a significant 26% in France do not think that President Bush should pull US troops out of Iraq at the start of his second term in early 2005.

On the issue of sending more troops to Iraq, nearly two in five (38%) respondents in Britain say that Germany and France should send troops if asked to do so by President Bush, compared with just 10% in Germany and 8% in France.

TNS Director Sue Homeyard says the findings 'suggest a relatively pragmatic view among people in key European countries on the US stance towards Iraq. On the one hand, a clear majority thinks that the US presence in Iraq will not achieve its stated purpose and will only serve to weaken the US's reputation internationally. In comparison, [there is] a slightly more cautious attitude towards troop withdrawal... It may be that some respondents who have little confidence in the ability of the US troops to achieve their mission in Iraq are also realistic enough to realise that a sudden withdrawal of the military could result in the creation of a power vacuum and possible civil strife'.

TNS interviewed c.1,000 adults in each of Britain, France and Germany between 5 and 12 November using its Ncompass International Omnibus. The agency can be found on the web at www.tns-global.com

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.

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