Daily Research News Online no. 3736 - US Public Limit Expectations from Iraqi Election

US Public Limit Expectations from Iraqi Election

January 24 2005

With the Iraqi elections only days away, the American public is not overly optimistic about their effect on the country's future, according to the latest Harris Poll. However, very large majorities believe it is right to promote democracy in Iraq, even if the resulting government is unfriendly to the USA.

Only a third (34%) believe the situation in Iraq will improve after the elections, and less than a third (28%) think the elections will lead to a reasonably free and democratic system of government. Less than a quarter (24%) of the public thinks that Iraq will be a model which will help spread freedom and democracy in the Middle East, and fewer still believe the elections will enable most U.S. troops to leave in the next year (18%), or will lead to a reduction in attacks on U.S. troops (17%).

Only 15% of all adults believe that the elected Iraqi government will be a close ally of the United States, but a further 40% think it will be at least 'friendly'. The principle of democracy appears very important in public perception: 71% believe that it is more important to have an elected, democratic Iraqi government than to have one which is friendly to the US, and 90% believe that even if an unfriendly government is elected, the US should try to work with it rather than changing it.

Predictably, Republicans are the more optimistic - fully 66% think the situation will improve post-elections, versus 16% of Democrats and 28% of Independents.

“After the elections in Iraq take place soon, do you think the situation in Iraq will be...?
Base: All Adults
		Party ID
	Total	Republican	Democrat	Independent
	%	%	%	%
Better (Net)	34	66	16	28
A Lot Better	5	12	1	3
Somewhat Better	29	54	15	25

The Same	34	21	37	42

Worse (Net)	25	9	38	25
A Lot Worse	15	4	23	15
A Little Worse	10	5	15	10

Not Sure	7	4	10	5

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

'After there is an elected government in place in Iraq, do you think this will or will not...?
Base: All Adults
	Will	Will Not	Not Sure
	%	%	%
Lead to a reasonably free and democraticsystem of government in Iraq	28	41	31
Be a model which will help spread freedom and democracy in the Middle East	24	47	29
Enable most U.S. troops to leave Iraq in the next year	18	59	23
Reduce the number of attacks against the U.S. troops	17	64	19

Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

'Do you think the Iraqi government due to be elected soon will be...?'
Based: All Adults
	%
A close ally of the United States	15
Friendly but not a close ally	40
Not friendly but not an enemy	25
Unfriendly and an enemy	7
Not sure	14
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.

The Harris Poll(r) was conducted online within the United States between January 11 and 16 among a nationwide cross section of 2,209 people aged 18 and over. The agency's web site is at www.harrisinteractive.com

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.