Forrester Models AI Disruption across Tech Markets

Tech research company Forrester has unveiled an AI Disruption Model, which analyzes whether AI is likely to accelerate, disrupt, reshape, or have limited impact on individual markets. The model has so far been applied to seventeen tech and service categories comprising more than 200 markets.

The model looks at factors including AI 'substitutability', labor intensity, support for agentic workloads, commercial models, data and trust advantages, agentic workload support, AI-focused R&D investment, regulatory friction, asset intensity, and switching costs.

The firm has published two initial reports. Unsurprisingly the top line findings say advancements in AI 'are disrupting technology markets at an unprecedented pace'. Beneath this, the reports suggest that technology products and services that enable, secure and govern AI are poised for significant growth due to organizations moving from experimentation to enterprise-scale deployment of AI applications and autonomous agents. In comparison, the firm notes that 'skills-based services will face disruption as AI assumes tasks that have traditionally depended on human expertise.'

Businesses can use the Model to anticipate the impact of AI on their portfolios and plan accordingly. Research to date finds that three categories of AI enabler are 'the only three markets expected to benefit as enterprises scale AI deployments' - the three are infrastructure providers; data and AI providers; and cybersecurity and identity providers. Labor-intensive knowledge-work industries face the greatest disruption, as AI substitutes for activities traditionally performed by people, including coding, content creation, and translation; but many enterprise software categories will be reshaped rather than displaced - these include business applications, governance and compliance, process automation, customer experience, and marketing technology.

'Every technology and service market is facing an AI overhaul,' says Craig Le Clair (pictured), VP and Principal Analyst at Forrester. 'Our research shows that AI's benefits will not be distributed evenly across technology markets. Only markets in three categories - infrastructure; data and AI; and identity, access, and network security - are broadly positioned for clear growth. Technologies in the other categories will be forced to adapt.'

Web site: www.forrester.com .

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.