Win-Win for Market Research on UK Election Day

At a conference recently the closing panel was asked 'What happens if PaddyPower get this one right and we don't?'. The consensus was that we couldn't be blamed for this one since it was 'too close to call'. As it was, pollsters did pretty well, as did two former researchers who are now MPs.

PaddyPower with 11/8 for a Conservative majority and Ladbrokes with a hung parliament at 4/6 were right on the nose. But so was the exit poll commissioned by the BBC, ITN and Sky jointly, and conducted by MORI/NOP - this predicted that the seat allocation would be: Conservative 307; Labour 255; Lib Dem 59; and Others 29. With all 649 results in, the seat allocation is: Conservatives 306; Labour 258; Lib Dem 57; and Others 28.

The exit poll differed quite dramatically from earlier ones which had overestimated the extent of the Lib Dem vote, however most eve of election polls did show that the 'Clegg surge' was over and his numbers were falling. This combined with as many as 40% of voters saying they were still undecided makes for a pretty high margin for error.

One of the main findings is that elections are getting better for business with 91 national polls being conducted - three times the 30 polls carried out in 2005.

Two former researchers now find themselves on opposite sides of the floor in the new parliament. Nadhim Zahawi, formerly CEO of YouGov, now has a huge majority in the safe Tory seat of Stratford-on-Avon, while Simon Danczuk, co-founder of Vision 21, scraped home for Labour in Rochdale despite a strong Lib Dem candidate and the after-effect of 'Bigotgate'.

So we could say it was a win-win for market research with two new advocates in the house and the prospect of another general election within the year. And there was the media saying nobody would be happy...

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.

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