Gallup Brings In Traugott for Polling Review

Gallup has brought in political scientist Dr Michael Traugott to help review its polling processes, following problems with its tracking of the recent US presidential election.

In November's election, President Obama won the popular vote by nearly four percentage points, 51% to 47%, whereas Gallup's final estimate showed a statistical tie: 49% for Obama, 50% for Romney.

Gallup, which lost its longstanding contract with USA Today last month, says that while the final estimate was 'quite similar' to a number of others, it has launched a comprehensive review of its election polling methods to ensure that future estimates come as close as possible to the final result.

As part of this review, Traugott (pictured) has been brought in to help examine aspects of Gallup's process, including cellphone sampling and phone status weighting, the registered voter screening process, and measurement of early voting. He will also examine gender and cellphone quotas, alongside representation of demographic categories in Gallup's weighted and unweighted national adult samples, including racial and ethnic groups.

Traugott began his training as Research Assistant to George Gallup during the 1964 election, before joining the University of Michigan, where he currently serves as Professor of Communication Studies and Political Science in the Center for Political Studies. In this role, his primary focus is on political communication, campaigns and elections, as well as the use of polls to make news.

He is the past President of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR), where he led a review of polling in the New Hampshire Democratic primary in 2008, in which virtually all polls inaccurately predicted Obama would win.

Gallup said in a statement that it plans to publicly share the results of its review once it is concluded.

Web site: www.gallup.com .

All articles 2006-23 written and edited by Mel Crowther and/or Nick Thomas, 2024- by Nick Thomas, unless otherwise stated.